Polls Open in the Netherlands as Polls Suggest Possible Second Victory for Geert Wilders

Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.